The highest chance of widely distributed rainfall runs through the Channel Country, southern Alice Springs districts, the Northwest Pastoral, eastern South Australia (Eyre Peninsula east), western Victoria, the Mallee and Wimmera, and lower western and northwestern New South Wales.

A notable coronal hole is currently approaching an earth-facing position. The sun completes a full rotation in approximately 28 days, and at this stage the coronal hole is roughly three to four days from alignment, placing it earth-facing around the 14th–15th of May. Given that solar wind typically takes a couple of days to influence the upper atmosphere and then a further lag before weather system enhancement becomes apparent, this lines up closely with the forecast wettest period of the 18th–2

The next major rainfall cycle is expected to form from late next week, building through mid-month and into week four of May. The models have shown good, consistent agreement over the last few weeks, nothing significant is forecast before mid-May across southern parts, but what follows looks increasingly credible.