Forecast Hub

Today’s update covers the developing weather signals across Australia as we transition from the current dry and heating phase into the next High Energy Period and tropical cyclone genesis window due 8 to 12 December.

December marks the transition into early summer, with increasing solar input, warmer surrounding seas and the build-up of the northern wet season. From August through November, rainfall decile patterns have maintained a strong contrast of a drier trend across the south-east and eastern interior, and a wetter to average signal across the north-west and western regions. By averaging the four-month decile trend, December shows a clear continuation of this divide: drier in the s

Australia’s Six-Month Outlook: December 2025 – June 2026 How Climate Drivers and High-Energy Periods Shape the Season Ahead

June occupies a pivotal position in Australia’s annual climatic cycle. In the southern half of the continent, it marks the full transition into the cooler, wetter winter half of the year, while in the far north it forms part of the peak dry‐season period. The June solstice (usually about 21 June) signals the minimum solar input for the Southern Hemisphere: day-length is at its shortest, and solar radiation is reduced. For farmers this is a key seasonal marker—soil temperature

October 2025 has continued the prevailing theme of below-average rainfall, persistent heat, and inconsistent model performance across much of Australia. Despite sporadic thunderstorm activity and the emergence of a cloud band through the northwest interior late in the month, broad-scale relief has remained elusive. Temperatures have been markedly above average, reinforcing the dominance of high-pressure blocking and limited atmospheric coupling throughout spring.

14–22 May (HEP 3 — Primary High-Energy Period) – A deep cold-cored low crosses the WA coast near the 14th, extending a chain of fronts eastward across the continent. Western Australia: Damaging coastal winds from the Mid-West to Esperance; widespread rain 20–50 mm. Southern SA and VIC: Frontal rainfall increases 15–60 mm. East Coast: System interacts with high pressure in the Tasman, forming a potential East Coast Low (ECL) 15–17 May, focusing rainfall on NSW and S

The April 2026 Australian long-range forecast highlights late-season tropical cyclone genesis in the northwest, a major weather system spanning multiple states, and severe weather risks for the east coast. Featuring rainfall percentile maps, temperature and precipitation trends, and detailed High Energy Periods, Oz Industries Forecasting delivers climate-driven insights months ahead of official providers.

The recent High Energy Period (26–29 August) delivered widespread severe weather across South Australia, Victoria, Tasmania, and parts of New South Wales, with damaging winds and heavy rainfall the main features. Conditions are now generally clear, but attention shifts to the next phase (3–5 September). A CME impact expected around 2–3 September will inject additional atmospheric energy, increasing the risk of renewed severe weather.

March is one of Australia’s most changeable months. It can pivot rapidly between humid, storm-laden weeks and hot, dry spells that extend across the continent. This volatility comes from the interplay of two climate engines: the fading tropical wet season in the north and the emerging autumn storm track in the south.

September long-range review: With a Negative IOD in the background, spring leans drier overall, with coast-favoured rainfall and one major risk window mid-month. We outline climate drivers, temperature signals, and the exact dates most likely to deliver weather of impact, so you can plan works and operations with lead time. Read the full members-only breakdown and weekly refinements through March 2026.

Late January – Early February: Monsoonal Low Formation A broad monsoonal low is forecast to develop during the final days of January, forming over the southern Gulf of Carpentaria, Cape York Peninsula, and extending into the northern Coral Sea. This low is expected to remain quasi-stationary for an extended period, gradually drifting south to southeast through early February.

The first ten days of January 2026 will see active weather conditions across northern Australia as two tropical low-pressure systems are expected to form. These systems will bring widespread rainfall, storm activity, and the potential for tropical cyclones, especially in the northeast and northwest parts of the country. The setup during this period is characterised by elevated rainfall risks, atmospheric lifting, and coastal convergence zones, making it a critical period for

PHASE 3 – PEAK MONSOON EVENT 26 February to 10 March 2026 Widespread vorticity spreads from the eastern Indian Ocean through the Arafura and into the Coral Sea. Twin circulations likely:

Australia's climate history is marked by recurring droughts, significantly influenced by its geographical position within the subtropical high-pressure belt. This region is characterised by descending, dry, and stable air masses, resulting in generally low and erratic rainfall across much of the continent. While the far north and south benefit from relatively regular rain-bearing systems, and the east coast is fed by moisture-laden winds from the Tasman and Coral Seas, large

December marks the beginning of summer in Australia and a pivotal point in the nation’s annual climate cycle. It is a month of atmospheric transition, as southern synoptic patterns give way to the intensifying influence of tropical systems in the north. This combination of subtropical heat, humid tropical air masses, and retreating mid-latitude systems creates significant variability in rainfall, temperature, and severe weather outcomes across the continent.

Timing Expectations Primary Window: 18–24 July ↳ NW CBs are climatologically favoured in this period, especially under a -IOD influence Secondary Window: 3–10 July ↳ Should this period not yield widespread NW CB development, attention shifts strongly toward the mid-late month window

High Energy week one and four!

By the 15th to 17th, a cut-off upper low is forecast to form over the eastern states, enhancing the storm threat further. This setup may lead to severe and widespread storms, with the potential for heavy rain, damaging winds, and giant hail from the interior to the east coast (note hail risk is mostly focused across the eastern states from SE SA, across Vic, eastern NSW and eastern Qld.

June 2025 Outlook Summary: Elevated Rainfall Risk Across Key Regions Due to the unfolding sequence of successive High Energy Periods—culminating in the broader June Major Cycle—rainfall across Australia is now forecast to fall within the top 30% of historical records for this time of year.

September marks the beginning of spring in Australia, a month where the continent transitions from the cooler, drier winter season into a period of increasing warmth and variability. Historically, it is characterised by a broad north-south climatic divide, with lingering dry conditions across much of the interior and south, while the tropical north remains in the tail-end of its dry season.