Forecasts

Next Weather Phase From Around 15 March 2026

Severe Weather Peaks as the 3–9 March High Energy Period Draws to a Close

For April 2026, most climate guidance and pattern analysis suggests the month will lean drier overall, with meaningful rainfall concentrated into a small number of defined weather windows rather than widespread activity.

An active week is unfolding across northern Australia as multiple tropical lows develop across several basins from Western Australia to Queensland. Tropical Lows 28U, 29U, 30U and 31U are expected to evolve over the coming days, increasing the risk of cyclone formation and associated severe weather impacts across parts of the tropics.

Satellite imagery 2.3.2026

Renewed flood risk is developing for Queensland, while tropical cyclone risk is increasing for the Pilbara and Mid West of Western Australia. This next phase may deliver another prolonged rainfall period across the northeast and parts of the west.

Current guidance continues to favour an overall southward drift of TL26U through South Australia, with central and eastern districts most exposed, generally east of Ceduna. However, as with all slow moving tropical systems embedded within a monsoonal flow, subtle shifts in track will influence where heavier corridors ultimately consolidate.

Major Weather Event Underway

This update focuses on the evolving rainfall setup for South Australia and Victoria, heavily influenced by WA tropical development through late February 2026.

A critical component of this evolving pattern is how these progressive southern frontal systems interact with the emerging El Niño across eastern Australia. Over the past several years, a clear drought wave has progressed from Western Australia during 2023 to 2024, into South Australia during 2024 to 2025, and is now entrenched across southeastern Australia during 2025 to 2026. This dry phase was largely responsible for the failed spring rains of 2025, despite broader climat

The remnants of Mitchell are now expected to be swept eastwards across the Bight, driven by an advancing southern frontal system. As this occurs, residual moisture will support isolated coastal showers across far southern South Australia, while increasing storm activity is more likely across southern Victoria, extending into north east Victoria.

Multi-System Weather Threat: Cyclone Mitchell, Eastern Severe Storm Risk and Tropical Low 23U Watch

This update covers: • TL21U evolution and current rainfall efficiency • Coral Sea tropical development signals • Western and eastern tropical system outlooks • Interior rainfall potential and confidence levels • Key areas to monitor over the coming week

Widespread showers, thunderstorms and rain areas are delivering 10–50 mm across much of the Top End, including the Darwin Daly, Arnhem, Roper and Victoria River districts, with embedded rainbands producing localised totals of 50–150 mm. Had this low been embedded within a stronger monsoon phase, daily falls of 50–100 mm or more would typically be expected, with rainbands capable of producing isolated pockets of 50–300 mm+. This highlights the comparatively suppressed nature o

Satellite imagery 1.2.2026

Rainfall variability will remain a key issue over the coming week due to the uncertain movement of Tropical Low 18U, currently situated across the northeast and Gulf region. Model guidance remains mixed, with some solutions shifting the system westward toward the Top End and Kimberley, while others hold it in place or move it eastward toward the Coral Sea.

This week is defined by a high impact multi-hazard pattern across Australia. The three dominant drivers are: A persistent and expanding heat dome across the interior and southeast, producing severe to extreme heatwave conditions and escalating fire weather risk. Ex-Tropical Cyclone Luana tracking south through inland Western Australia, bringing widespread heavy rainfall, flash flooding risk and damaging winds near the core of the system.

A very active wet season signal continues across northern Australia, with Tropical Low 16U the primary driver for the northwest through Friday to early next week, and a separate Coral Sea low (17U) maintaining showers and coastal convergence risk for far north Queensland while generally staying offshore. Inland Australia stays largely suppressed away from the tropical moisture corridors, but a renewed inland moisture feed is likely to push rain areas and storms further into t

High Energy Period Triggers Cyclone Risk in the Northwest as Heatwaves Dominate the Interior and Storm Bands Build Across Eastern Australia

Following on from the major cycle that was forecast to conclude around the 11th, an interesting and important observation is now emerging. Once Tropical Cyclone Koji crossed the coast on the 11th, the period of widespread high-impact rainfall effectively ended. Since that point, even though Ex-Koji has continued to track across the interior, rainfall has been far more fragmented and localised, occurring mainly in pockets of convection near the remnant circulation rather than