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How a failed spring and a moving drought corridor set the scene Over the past few days, communities across New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania have been hit by fast moving bushfires that have destroyed homes, cut roads and forced evacuations. In New South Wales, a natural disaster has been declared after almost forty homes were lost across several local government areas, including the Central Coast, Mid Coast, Upper Hunter, Muswellbrook, Warrumbungle and Dubbo.

Today’s update covers the developing weather signals across Australia as we transition from the current dry and heating phase into the next High Energy Period and tropical cyclone genesis window due 8 to 12 December.

The pattern ahead sets the stage for the next High Energy Period, focused primarily over the western basin from 8–12 December. Current model guidance indicates Cyclone Genesis near 112–114° E, with the system expected to drift south toward the Pilbara coast by mid-month. Secondary tropical lows are likely to form across the Arafura Sea and near 160° E between Vanuatu and New Caledonia, each forecast to track southeastward.

28 November 2025 Severe Weather & Heatwave Overview

The current High Energy Period (19–24 November) reaches its peak today, coinciding precisely with the maximum intensity of Severe Tropical Cyclone Fina. The system is now beginning to weaken and will continue tracking southwest towards the North Kimberley coast and Mitchell Plateau from 25 November onwards.

A highly dynamic national pattern is unfolding, driven by Tropical Cyclone Fina across the northern Top End, widespread severe heat across inland Australia, and increasing thunderstorm activity along the eastern seaboard.

Tropical Cyclone Fina Update – Alignment with the 19–24 November High-Energy Period

High Energy Period 19-24th Intensifies: Tropical Low 02U and the Escalation of National Severe Weather

Australia Climate & Weather Briefing – Mid November 2025

Severe-Weather Synopsis A broad storm corridor from WA Interior → SA → QLD → eastern NSW peaks mid-week. Damaging winds, large hail, and flash-flooding possible in QLD interior and northern NSW. Heatwave early week across the north and west; humidity surge by mid-week. Tropical build-up strengthening; next west-to-east convective phase due ~19 Nov.

Satellite 7.11.2025 Solar Activity Overview Solar activity has intensified significantly during the past fortnight, with several X-class flares recorded. These are the strongest flares observed since the major June event and occurred within the most recent High Energy Period from 29th October to 5th November. X1.8 Flare This solar uplift arrived precisely as Australia experienced the wettest national window of spring to date. The overlap between enhanced space-weather activit

Weekly totals reached 50 to 100 mm through inland Queensland and New South Wales, with a national high of 254 mm at Brays Creek (NSW). Moisture also extended across the Northern Territory, Kimberley, interior South Australia and south-west Western Australia, confirming a full re-establishment of tropical and inland moisture. This marks the atmospheric reset OIF signalled: a transition to the late-spring wet phase, now building toward the next major activation (19 – 24 Novem

After more than 12 months of entrenched drought across large parts of eastern South Australia, western Victoria, and western New South Wales, a significant atmospheric shift is now taking shape. The week ahead will mark the beginning of a long-awaited transition from persistent dryness to widespread instability and renewed rainfall across much of the nation.

A significant atmospheric shift is underway as the current High Energy Period continues to intensify across Australia. Energy build-up through the northwest corridor is increasing, with a broad northwest flow now developing via the Kimberley and Darwin–Daly before extending into the central interior.

Satellite imagery 27.10.2025

Australia remains under a sharp temperature contrast, with heatwave conditions dominating the north and interior, while southern states experience cold, gusty southerlies and frost risk following frontal passage. Marine wind warnings are widespread around southern and eastern waters, marking an energetic late-October pattern.

Video Update - Southern Australian Rain and increasing moisture trends across the interior.

October 2025 has continued the prevailing theme of below-average rainfall, persistent heat, and inconsistent model performance across much of Australia. Despite sporadic thunderstorm activity and the emergence of a cloud band through the northwest interior late in the month, broad-scale relief has remained elusive. Temperatures have been markedly above average, reinforcing the dominance of high-pressure blocking and limited atmospheric coupling throughout spring.

The current forecast period is expected to remain predominantly dry, characterised by a broad zone of heat anomalies expanding from the northwest and moving east through the interior. Elevated temperatures will dominate Western Australia, the Northern Territory, South Australia, Queensland, New South Wales, and parts of Victoria.

Summary Australia is currently under multi-state weather hazards, including: Extreme heat in the Northern Territory Extreme fire danger in southern WA Thunderstorms and flash flood risk across southern QLD Gale-force coastal winds from Tasmania to NSW Cold, grazing-risk conditions in alpine regions Widespread pattern reflects strong thermal contrasts across the continent as inland heat intensifies and frontal systems progress through southern waters.