Forecasts

A regenerating cloud band sequence, a secondary upper trough deepening through the Indian Ocean, and a moisture conveyor stretching some 4,000 kilometres are combining to deliver widespread rainfall from the West Coast to the Tasman before winter arrives at month's end.

We are misled by averages. The signal only makes sense once it is measured against what a typical year actually delivers.

A run of settled, frosty weather has held across the south while a broad high meandered east. That window is now closing. A frontal sequence is firing in Western Australia today, an inland trough is loading up in the east, and the three major models agree the peak rainfall phase of the winter is locked in.

A deep Southern Ocean low brings the season's first true frontal rain, damaging winds and the first alpine snow — before the pattern dries out ahead of a stronger mid-month signal building in the west.

A significant high energy period is underway across southern Australia, driving widespread, drought-breaking rainfall through the nation's key agricultural zones. The system began around 26 May — roughly a day earlier than anticipated — and has unfolded in a slightly different sequence than forecast, with the eastern system firing before the west rather than after it. Despite the reordering, the outcome has been overwhelmingly beneficial.

A surface low and upper trough deliver the southeast's best falls in weeks, while a long-awaited frontal sequence opens the season for Western Australian ag zones. Two to three systems move through over the next 10 to 14 days as the next high-energy period builds.

A frontal system and upper trough are setting the stage for showers and storms across multiple states from midweek, marking the next build-up phase toward the major June cycle - and it may be arriving a few days early.

The May major weather cycle is moving into its end phase, sliding through the southeast of Queensland with a tailing trough still trailing through the Northern Territory and Western Australia. From a national rainfall perspective, this has been a strongly positive event, every state has seen meaningful rainfall, with the only disappointment being the southwest of Western Australia, where the forecast for this week failed to play out.

The highest chance of widely distributed rainfall runs through the Channel Country, southern Alice Springs districts, the Northwest Pastoral, eastern South Australia (Eyre Peninsula east), western Victoria, the Mallee and Wimmera, and lower western and northwestern New South Wales.

A notable coronal hole is currently approaching an earth-facing position. The sun completes a full rotation in approximately 28 days, and at this stage the coronal hole is roughly three to four days from alignment, placing it earth-facing around the 14th–15th of May. Given that solar wind typically takes a couple of days to influence the upper atmosphere and then a further lag before weather system enhancement becomes apparent, this lines up closely with the forecast wettest

The next major rainfall cycle is expected to form from late next week, building through mid-month and into week four of May. The models have shown good, consistent agreement over the last few weeks, nothing significant is forecast before mid-May across southern parts, but what follows looks increasingly credible.

The driving mechanism was a northwest moisture corridor of the kind that defines productive cool-season events: a strong upper-level flow drawing moisture in from the Pilbara, feeding south and east through the interior. The remnant cloud from Tropical Cyclone Maila extended the southern reach of this system, reinforcing the band across southwestern Western Australia. While the cyclone did not make landfall through the Pilbara as hoped, its cloud mass enhanced the southern mo

The blocking high pattern anchored over the Tasman and New Zealand is forecast to persist for at least another month. This keeps warmer, wetter conditions locked into southern and western Australia, while maintaining stronger southerly trades and a drier, cooler bias through much of eastern NSW and Queensland. This divergence will gradually ease as the regime shifts, with the outlook improving for the east heading into late winter and spring.

A significant multi-day rainfall episode is already underway across the South West Land Division of Western Australia and is forecast to evolve into a deep Southern Ocean low later this week, sweeping a broad rainband across South Australia, Victoria, southern New South Wales and Tasmania through the weekend and into early next week. This is shaping up as the most substantial autumn rain-bearing system to affect southern Australia so far this season, with several agricultural

After a frustrating delay of several days, long-range weather models are now locking in on a significant rainfall event expected to deliver widespread falls across Australia's southern and eastern agricultural zones between Wednesday 29 April and Wednesday 6 May. Western Australia, South Australia, Victoria and parts of New South Wales are all in line to benefit, with some locations potentially recording more than 50mm.

Anzac Day rain forecast 2026 South Australia weather update Western Australia rainfall ex-Miler trough ECMWF 10 day outlook ACCESS model east coast low April May rainfall Eyre Peninsula Yorke Peninsula Adelaide Hills Gascoyne Pilbara Southwest Land Division wheatbelt storm band agricultural rainfall outlook Anzac Day weekend weather

The broader trend is what makes this setup interesting. After months of dry signals across the national forecast, longer-term climate models have steadily shifted towards wetter outcomes over recent weeks. That kind of reversal doesn't happen easily, and it suggests moisture will continue to build through the months ahead rather than decline as winter approaches. The direction of travel is more positive than the current ENSO and IOD commentary would suggest.

May shows strong rainfall signals, June continues this trend, and while July appears more average, further events are expected. August favours the southwest and southeast, while spring shows near to above average rainfall, with increasing storm activity inland. Despite El Niño and IOD discussions, the current pattern suggests a strong northwest cloud band season, with consistent moisture transport from the Indian Ocean.

Late-April Rainfall Signal Strengthens as Northern Moisture Links with Southern Systems

Over the past 24 to 48 hours, we have seen the progression of a frontal system that developed across southern Western Australia in week one of the month. This system has now moved through South Australia and into Victoria, aligning well with the long-range forecast for week one and week two.