Forecasts

A significant multi-day rainfall episode is already underway across the South West Land Division of Western Australia and is forecast to evolve into a deep Southern Ocean low later this week, sweeping a broad rainband across South Australia, Victoria, southern New South Wales and Tasmania through the weekend and into early next week. This is shaping up as the most substantial autumn rain-bearing system to affect southern Australia so far this season, with several agricultural

After a frustrating delay of several days, long-range weather models are now locking in on a significant rainfall event expected to deliver widespread falls across Australia's southern and eastern agricultural zones between Wednesday 29 April and Wednesday 6 May. Western Australia, South Australia, Victoria and parts of New South Wales are all in line to benefit, with some locations potentially recording more than 50mm.

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The broader trend is what makes this setup interesting. After months of dry signals across the national forecast, longer-term climate models have steadily shifted towards wetter outcomes over recent weeks. That kind of reversal doesn't happen easily, and it suggests moisture will continue to build through the months ahead rather than decline as winter approaches. The direction of travel is more positive than the current ENSO and IOD commentary would suggest.

May shows strong rainfall signals, June continues this trend, and while July appears more average, further events are expected. August favours the southwest and southeast, while spring shows near to above average rainfall, with increasing storm activity inland. Despite El Niño and IOD discussions, the current pattern suggests a strong northwest cloud band season, with consistent moisture transport from the Indian Ocean.

Late-April Rainfall Signal Strengthens as Northern Moisture Links with Southern Systems

Over the past 24 to 48 hours, we have seen the progression of a frontal system that developed across southern Western Australia in week one of the month. This system has now moved through South Australia and into Victoria, aligning well with the long-range forecast for week one and week two.

Looking ahead, attention turns to a tropical system developing in the northeast basin between the 9th and 12th. This system, now Tropical Cyclone Maila, is currently a Category 3 system. Most models are taking it across the far north, tracking through the Arafura Sea. This aligns with earlier expectations of a track similar to Cyclone Narelle.

Attention then turns very quickly to the next key feature in the pattern, and this is where the forecast becomes far more significant. From around the 9th to the 12th of April, there is increasing model agreement on the development of a tropical low in the Timor Sea or Arafura Sea region. Sea surface temperatures remain elevated, sitting around 29 degrees, which is more than sufficient to support cyclone development. While we are still some time out, the consistency in the s

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Tropical Cyclone Narelle has redeveloped overnight into a Category 1 system and is now entering a critical intensification phase offshore the Pilbara coast. The key shift in this system is its size and structure. Despite remaining offshore, Narelle is broad enough to extend impacts well inland and along a large stretch of coastline, increasing risk well beyond the immediate core.

A significant shift in Australia’s weather pattern is now underway, with the atmosphere transitioning from a tropical-inland dominated phase into a southern-driven regime, marked by the development of an East Coast Low (ECL)along the New South Wales coast late this week. This system will be the defining feature for southeastern Australia from Thursday through Saturday, bringing a combination of severe thunderstorms, damaging coastal conditions, heavy rainfall, and a sharp co

There are cyclones… and then there are systems like Narelle. What has unfolded over the past week is not just another tropical system, but a rare, long-track, cross-basin cyclone that has impacted multiple regions across northern Australia and is now set to influence the west coast in the days ahead. From formation to its current phase, Narelle has followed a highly dynamic and energetic path, aligning closely with what we have identified as the final high-energy tropical w

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle and High Energy Period Drive National Rainfall and Weather Shift Across Australia

A weak tropical low has again shifted south into the central interior, following the inland corridor that has remained active since February. This system has already produced extensive flooding across the Top End and NT interior, along with significant rainfall and renewed flooding through the northern pastoral districts of South Australia.

Video Summary: Today’s video update discusses the building national weather phase currently developing across Australia, bringing a renewed round of storm activity through southern Western Australia, South Australia, Victoria and New South Wales. This emerging phase is also helping to re-establish long-range atmospheric pathways linking northern Australia with the south and south-east. These corridors are a critical component of both historical rainfall patterns and upcoming

A high energy weather period between 15 and 18 March will help drive a northwest cloud band across central Australia delivering rainfall through the interior and northern South Australia while storms continue across the north and coastal showers persist along eastern Queensland.

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Next Weather Phase From Around 15 March 2026

Severe Weather Peaks as the 3–9 March High Energy Period Draws to a Close