Forecasts

May shows strong rainfall signals, June continues this trend, and while July appears more average, further events are expected. August favours the southwest and southeast, while spring shows near to above average rainfall, with increasing storm activity inland. Despite El Niño and IOD discussions, the current pattern suggests a strong northwest cloud band season, with consistent moisture transport from the Indian Ocean.

Across May through July, the model suite is consistently indicating favourable rainfall potential via northwest moisture pathways extending into: Western Australia Southern Australia Interior regions Parts of the southeast This aligns with the developing northwest cloudband structure and the ongoing inland moisture transport feeding into southern systems.

Attention then turns very quickly to the next key feature in the pattern, and this is where the forecast becomes far more significant. From around the 9th to the 12th of April, there is increasing model agreement on the development of a tropical low in the Timor Sea or Arafura Sea region. Sea surface temperatures remain elevated, sitting around 29 degrees, which is more than sufficient to support cyclone development. While we are still some time out, the consistency in the s

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For April 2026, most climate guidance and pattern analysis suggests the month will lean drier overall, with meaningful rainfall concentrated into a small number of defined weather windows rather than widespread activity.

Satellite imagery 2.3.2026

Understanding Climate in Australia Australia spans a remarkable range of climate zones. From the tropical north, across vast inland arid and semi arid regions, to the temperate and frontal dominated south, the continent experiences substantial variability in rainfall, temperature and seasonal structure. It is important to distinguish between weather, climate and seasons. Weather refers to atmospheric conditions over short timeframes. This includes temperature, humidity, rain

Current guidance continues to favour an overall southward drift of TL26U through South Australia, with central and eastern districts most exposed, generally east of Ceduna. However, as with all slow moving tropical systems embedded within a monsoonal flow, subtle shifts in track will influence where heavier corridors ultimately consolidate.

A critical component of this evolving pattern is how these progressive southern frontal systems interact with the emerging El Niño across eastern Australia. Over the past several years, a clear drought wave has progressed from Western Australia during 2023 to 2024, into South Australia during 2024 to 2025, and is now entrenched across southeastern Australia during 2025 to 2026. This dry phase was largely responsible for the failed spring rains of 2025, despite broader climat

Australia’s Six-Month Outlook: December 2025 – June 2026 How Climate Drivers and High-Energy Periods Shape the Season Ahead

While mainstream guidance expected a widespread wet spring, OIF’s caution of a drier-leaning start to spring has proven accurate, highlighting the value of including non-traditional drivers beyond ocean indices in seasonal risk assessments.

Australia's climate history is marked by recurring droughts, significantly influenced by its geographical position within the subtropical high-pressure belt. This region is characterised by descending, dry, and stable air masses, resulting in generally low and erratic rainfall across much of the continent. While the far north and south benefit from relatively regular rain-bearing systems, and the east coast is fed by moisture-laden winds from the Tasman and Coral Seas, large

December marks the beginning of summer in Australia and a pivotal point in the nation’s annual climate cycle. It is a month of atmospheric transition, as southern synoptic patterns give way to the intensifying influence of tropical systems in the north. This combination of subtropical heat, humid tropical air masses, and retreating mid-latitude systems creates significant variability in rainfall, temperature, and severe weather outcomes across the continent.

Upcoming Rainfall Outlook – Long Range Update 🌧️ The next significant weather period in the long-range forecast falls between 21st and 25th April, with increased rainfall potential across southwest WA. This event will likely be associated with Ex-TC Errol interacting with an approaching cold front and upper-level trough pushing up from the Southern Ocean.