Forecasts

An active week is unfolding across northern Australia as multiple tropical lows develop across several basins from Western Australia to Queensland. Tropical Lows 28U, 29U, 30U and 31U are expected to evolve over the coming days, increasing the risk of cyclone formation and associated severe weather impacts across parts of the tropics.

Renewed flood risk is developing for Queensland, while tropical cyclone risk is increasing for the Pilbara and Mid West of Western Australia. This next phase may deliver another prolonged rainfall period across the northeast and parts of the west.

This update focuses on the evolving rainfall setup for South Australia and Victoria, heavily influenced by WA tropical development through late February 2026.

The remnants of Mitchell are now expected to be swept eastwards across the Bight, driven by an advancing southern frontal system. As this occurs, residual moisture will support isolated coastal showers across far southern South Australia, while increasing storm activity is more likely across southern Victoria, extending into north east Victoria.

Multi-System Weather Threat: Cyclone Mitchell, Eastern Severe Storm Risk and Tropical Low 23U Watch

This update covers: • TL21U evolution and current rainfall efficiency • Coral Sea tropical development signals • Western and eastern tropical system outlooks • Interior rainfall potential and confidence levels • Key areas to monitor over the coming week

Widespread showers, thunderstorms and rain areas are delivering 10–50 mm across much of the Top End, including the Darwin Daly, Arnhem, Roper and Victoria River districts, with embedded rainbands producing localised totals of 50–150 mm. Had this low been embedded within a stronger monsoon phase, daily falls of 50–100 mm or more would typically be expected, with rainbands capable of producing isolated pockets of 50–300 mm+. This highlights the comparatively suppressed nature o

Satellite imagery 1.2.2026

This week is defined by a high impact multi-hazard pattern across Australia. The three dominant drivers are: A persistent and expanding heat dome across the interior and southeast, producing severe to extreme heatwave conditions and escalating fire weather risk. Ex-Tropical Cyclone Luana tracking south through inland Western Australia, bringing widespread heavy rainfall, flash flooding risk and damaging winds near the core of the system.

A very active wet season signal continues across northern Australia, with Tropical Low 16U the primary driver for the northwest through Friday to early next week, and a separate Coral Sea low (17U) maintaining showers and coastal convergence risk for far north Queensland while generally staying offshore. Inland Australia stays largely suppressed away from the tropical moisture corridors, but a renewed inland moisture feed is likely to push rain areas and storms further into t

High Energy Period Triggers Cyclone Risk in the Northwest as Heatwaves Dominate the Interior and Storm Bands Build Across Eastern Australia

Following on from the major cycle that was forecast to conclude around the 11th, an interesting and important observation is now emerging. Once Tropical Cyclone Koji crossed the coast on the 11th, the period of widespread high-impact rainfall effectively ended. Since that point, even though Ex-Koji has continued to track across the interior, rainfall has been far more fragmented and localised, occurring mainly in pockets of convection near the remnant circulation rather than

Tropical Low 12U continues to develop in the western Coral Sea and is tracking toward the northeast Queensland coast. While model guidance indicates a moderate risk of cyclone development late Friday into Saturday, the primary and most immediate threat is extreme rainfall, not wind intensity.

Australia is entering a high-impact weather period, with multiple hazards unfolding simultaneously across different regions. The national pattern remains sharply divided, with a developing tropical system bringing increasing flood and wind risk to the northeast, while extreme heat, dryness and escalating fire danger continue across the south and southeast. The lack of overlap between these regimes is critical, as there is no rainfall relief forecast for fire-prone southern re

Australia remains in an exceptionally high-energy pattern, with multiple hazards occurring simultaneously. The key theme through to the 11th is the continued dominance of the monsoon in the north and northeast, while dangerous heat and fire weather escalate across southern and western regions.

Satellite imagery 31.12.2025

A prolonged weather event is expected to persist into 7–11 January 2026, continuing the active monsoonal pattern that has dominated since late December. A key contributing factor lies in a series of Earth-facing coronal holes that developed during week four of December 2025, a phenomenon that was highlighted in previous Oz Industries Forecasting updates.

The High Energy Period (HEP) from 18 to 24 December is now moving through its peak phase. The 21 to 24 December window has proven to be the wetter segment of this period, with a marked increase in thunderstorm activity across the southeast over recent days. Areas of southeast South Australia, Victoria, New South Wales and parts of southern Queensland have experienced a surge in storms, with recorded rainfall totals generally ranging from 5 to 50 mm, and isolated pockets of 5

As the monsoon strengthens, high-impact rainfall is forecast to build across the northeast from late December, continuing into early January 2026, with the most intense period likely between 31 December and 11 January.

In today’s update, we unpack the next major weather cycle set to unfold from late December leading into the first tropical phase of the 2025–2026 season across northern Australia. Expect a noticeable build-up of heat, moisture, and storm energy through the north and northeast, with high-impact rainfall likely developing into week two of January 2026.