Forecast Hub

High Energy week one and four!

By the 15th to 17th, a cut-off upper low is forecast to form over the eastern states, enhancing the storm threat further. This setup may lead to severe and widespread storms, with the potential for heavy rain, damaging winds, and giant hail from the interior to the east coast (note hail risk is mostly focused across the eastern states from SE SA, across Vic, eastern NSW and eastern Qld.

A significant Earth-facing coronal hole is now in position on the Sun — notably the same long-lived feature that impacted Earth during March and again in late April. Once again, it has rotated into view, suggesting strong consistency with the Sun’s ~27-day synodic rotation period, as observed from Earth.

By Monday, this trough is expected to consolidate over the Hunter district, bringing: Heavy rainfall falls of 100-200mm likely Damaging winds gusting to 90kmh Flash flooding potential rainfall (Convergence zones - coastal regions of the Hunter) A persistent zone of coastal vorticity is likely to remain anchored between the Mid North Coast and the Illawarra, lingering from Monday through Wednesday before gradually shifting south.

A dry week continues across most of the nation, with the exception of the eastern coastal fringe where persistent trade showers remain active. Over the past week, rainfall totals have varied significantly — from just 1mm along the southern coast to more than 100mm across parts of the northeast NSW coast, tropical northeast Queensland, and the Arnhem coast of the Northern Territory.

June 2025 Outlook Summary: Elevated Rainfall Risk Across Key Regions Due to the unfolding sequence of successive High Energy Periods—culminating in the broader June Major Cycle—rainfall across Australia is now forecast to fall within the top 30% of historical records for this time of year.

Looking ahead: A nationally dry spell is expected to follow, marked by patchy coastal showers. However, our extended outlooks highlight a fresh round of rainfall patterns developing from late May into June. While models remain hit-and-miss, atmospheric signals are already aligning with what we’ve flagged: the next nationwide wet period is building. Key Indicators Point to June Rain Signal – Monitoring Begins Western Indicators: Progressive development of upper level troughing

The concluding phase of the 2024–2025 wet season is now reaching its peak and is set to draw to a close. Encouragingly, both atmospheric conditions and computer models are now in strong alignment, showing renewed consistency for the developing northeast trough and associated eastern rainfall event.

September marks the beginning of spring in Australia, a month where the continent transitions from the cooler, drier winter season into a period of increasing warmth and variability. Historically, it is characterised by a broad north-south climatic divide, with lingering dry conditions across much of the interior and south, while the tropical north remains in the tail-end of its dry season.

Satellite imagery 28.4.2025

Satellite imagery 24.4.2025

Southwest in Transition – The Seasonal Break Continues A frontal system is due to enter the Southwest WA region in the coming days, bringing showers and storms with rainfall totals of 5–50mm across the greater region. This system will then progress east across the Southern Ocean, forming the next rainfall window for: Southeast SA (mainly coastal) Western Victoria Western NSW

Upcoming Rainfall Outlook – Long Range Update 🌧️ The next significant weather period in the long-range forecast falls between 21st and 25th April, with increased rainfall potential across southwest WA. This event will likely be associated with Ex-TC Errol interacting with an approaching cold front and upper-level trough pushing up from the Southern Ocean.

📊 Latest Model Insight: CFS & ECMWF Confirms June Wet Peak The latest monthly progression from the CFS (Climate Forecast System) and ECMWF continues to support the long-range outlook discussed extensively over recent months. It highlights a generally dry May followed by a nationally significant wet period peaking in June, before a gradual return to average or below-average rainfall from July onwards.

Australia's Climatic Overview – August August is typically characterised by cool and dry conditions over central and northern regions, while frontal systems continue to dominate the south, bringing cold outbreaks, rainfall, and widespread frost events, especially inland. However, by late August, the early signs of springtime transition begin to appear — particularly across northern and eastern Australia, where daytime temperatures rise and storm energy begins to rebuild.

🌤️ Sharp Break in Weather as April Clears Briefly – Major Rain Cycles Return Mid to Late Month Issued: Tuesday 8 April 2025

Satellite imagery 7.4.2025 🌦️ And Just Like Clockwork… A Grand National Clearance Begins As expected, the major cycle draws to a close...

Following a highly active June, July 2025 is expected to deliver generally average to slightly above average rainfall across much of the cou

Australian Weather Update - March Major Cycle comes to a close!

Satellite Imagery 2.4.2025

Australian Weather March Major cycle 18.3-7.4.2025

Satellite overview 28.3.2025

June long range forecast 2025

The March Major system is expected to persist through the end of the month, bringing continued flood risk to several states and territories.