National Weather Update: Current Conditions and December Outlook
- Stuart Williams
- 10 minutes ago
- 2 min read
Oz Industries Forecasting
Know the Future™
Timeline
00:00 to 2:35 – Satellite discussion and current national setup
2:35 to 7:42 – Tropical Low 03U development and long-range pattern signals
7:42 to end – Weather outlook through mid and late December
*While we remain within a generally stable period - I have decided to make todays update public.*
Today’s update covers the developing weather signals across Australia as we transition from the current dry and heating phase into the next High Energy Period and tropical cyclone genesis window due 8 to 12 December.
We are now entering a renewed and extended heatwave period that will strengthen into week three of December. This heat build aligns with the expected atmospheric compression ahead of the next national wet period due 16 to 24 December, with the primary focus 18 to 24 December.
Long-range forecasts released by Oz Industries in June 2025 identified the 8 December window for tropical low development. Current indicators continue to support this timing, with Tropical Low 03U expected to form from around 8 December. This aligns with our original long-range signals as well as with current guidance from the Bureau of Meteorology and ECMWF.
Solar activity is now at its peak for this phase. This has driven the more active national pattern through November and early December. The national wet phase of spring was always due from late October through November, with solar energy maximums set to peak by week one of December.
The current X1.95 solar flare and associated coronal activity are expected to influence Earth from today into 5 December. The sunspot region responsible for the November and early December events remains Earth-facing for several more days. As such, additional pulses of energetic particles may continue to affect atmospheric conditions through to about 8 December.
This aligns with the next High Energy Period and cyclone genesis window.
Looking ahead, key features to monitor include:
• A strengthening heatwave across extensive parts of Australia into week three-December.
• Tropical Low 03U development near the 8 December mark, with early signs favouring a west-south-west movement toward the Pilbara mid-month.
• A national rainfall increase during 16 to 24 December, with the strongest signals 18 to 24 December.
(Rainfall potential increases from mid week three of December 2025)
The atmosphere is now shifting into a more active state that supports the broader December pattern established earlier in the year. We will continue monitoring all key triggers daily and will update members as additional signals refine.
DECEMBER: https://www.ozindustriesforecasting.com/post/australia-s-december-climate-and-weather-summary
DECEMBER review: https://www.ozindustriesforecasting.com/post/december-2025-review-high-energy-weather-windows-and-tropical-risk-outlook