Forecast Hub

KEY MESSAGES FOR READERS High FDR Tue-Thu inland – follow BoM Fire-Danger Ratings & prepare fire-plans. SE fronts weaker – showers confined to windward coasts/ranges, inland stays mostly dry. SW WA Severe-Weather PEAK Sun 5 Oct – Damaging-Wind & Small-Hail risk on named capes/headlands. Rainfall greater in west (WA coasts) than east-coast fronts – still mostly coastal-focused; interior remains drier than models. Travel / Marine caution for capes, headlands &

Heat Building West → North/West Fire Weather:First major inland heat push of spring with extreme fire dangers possible in WA, NT and SA. Frontal System SE (30 Sept – 3 Oct):Models agree on a strong system bringing showers, storms, and cooler changes to SA, VIC, TAS and NSW. Pre-Frontal Fire Weather Risks:Hot, gusty northerlies across SA, VIC, southern NSW ahead of the front.

The coming week will highlight Australia’s spring contrasts. A strong cold front sweeps across southern states early in the week, bringing showers, colder air and even alpine snow to Tasmania, Victoria, and southern New South Wales. Behind it, a ridge of high pressure steadies conditions but keeps nights cool, while inland areas quickly warm under clear skies. Along the eastern seaboard, showers and storms remain active in Queensland’s north and coastal New South Wales. Heav

Severe Weather Focus Today (Fri): Severe thunderstorms inland NSW/ACT, north VIC, and Riverina corridor. Saturday: Peak storm day from central/northern NSW into SE QLD, including Darling Downs and Granite Belt. Sunday: Activity contracts to coastal NSW/QLD; southern states showery, windy. Monday: Mostly settled — except Top End storms beginning build-up phase, marking the seasonal shift.

Over the next week I will finalise the April 2026 forecast which will be available to Annual or Gold members only. The April period signals one final tropical burst to see out the northern wet season before the transition back towards the southern wet season begins once again.

A northwest cloud band feeds into a broad trough today with storm events in the Southeast; a developing low near the NSW coast lifts severe-weather risk for the East Coast on Thursday; another inland trough brings rain and storms on Sunday.

Building heat across the northern interior is set to prime the atmosphere for the first thunderstorm outbreak of the season, as a tropical airmass surges ahead of an approaching frontal system.

National Weather Outlook - High Energy Period 3-5th September 2025. Satellite imagery 4.9.2025 This week’s conditions align with the High...

The recent High Energy Period (26–29 August) delivered widespread severe weather across South Australia, Victoria, Tasmania, and parts of New South Wales, with damaging winds and heavy rainfall the main features. Conditions are now generally clear, but attention shifts to the next phase (3–5 September). A CME impact expected around 2–3 September will inject additional atmospheric energy, increasing the risk of renewed severe weather.

The final week of August and the start of September will be dominated by strong cold fronts sweeping through southern Australia. These systems are expected to deliver damaging winds, rain, snow to low levels, and renewed flood risks in eastern catchments. While the southern states battle severe winter weather, the climate backdrop of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) suggests a wetter lean for much of eastern Australia heading into Spring however the wetter period of Sprin

Transition to High Energy Period – 26–29 August 2025

The High Energy period (18–24 August) is beginning to fully mature, with both western and eastern Australia now experiencing heightened weather activity. This phase is marked by severe weather risks, including heavy rainfall, flooding potential, and strong frontal passages.

High Energy Period Brings Active Weather Across Australia: 18–24 August 2025

Weekly Weather Update - Cold surge builds in the east while rain returns for the west!

Colder and drier conditions across southern Australia, especially SA, VIC, southern NSW, and southern WA, with increased frost potential in inland regions. A stall or weakening of moisture inflow from the tropics, reducing rainfall and promoting a shift to more stable (clearer, drier) weather conditions. Enhanced high-pressure ridging may dominate the southern half of the continent, reinforcing drier trends heading into spring.

Recent Rainfall Summary – Late June to 10 July 2025 Widespread seasonal rainfall has been observed across southern and eastern Australia since late June, aligning with long-range forecast guidance that highlighted the 3rd to 10th of July as a key window for enhanced activity.

PHASE 3 – PEAK MONSOON EVENT 26 February to 10 March 2026 Widespread vorticity spreads from the eastern Indian Ocean through the Arafura and into the Coral Sea. Twin circulations likely:

The current front is forecast to bring an increase in rainfall across southern South Australia from today. Widespread totals of 1–5 mm are expected along the southwest coast, Eyre Peninsula, and into the Mid North, while 5–10 mm is likely to build across the Yorke Peninsula, Adelaide region, and the southeast.

Australia's climate history is marked by recurring droughts, significantly influenced by its geographical position within the subtropical high-pressure belt. This region is characterised by descending, dry, and stable air masses, resulting in generally low and erratic rainfall across much of the continent. While the far north and south benefit from relatively regular rain-bearing systems, and the east coast is fed by moisture-laden winds from the Tasman and Coral Seas, large

The High Energy period from 3–10 July officially kicks off today, though severe weather began early this week due to space weather influences, including CME activity. This window will feature a sequence of strong frontal systems, sweeping from west to east across southern Australia.