Forecasts

Monday 15 December to Sunday 22 December This week is shaping up as a classic pre Christmas contrast across Australia.Heat dominates the north and interior, while the south experiences very strong winds, rough seas and sharp temperature swings. As we move toward 18 to 24 December, the atmosphere becomes more energetic, increasing the risk of severe thunderstorms and localised heavy rain, especially inland and across parts of the east.

Australia is under a broad summer heat regime, dominated by a strong subtropical ridge and slow-moving trough.The northern tropics remain storm-active, the east coast faces sporadic storms leading to isolated heavy rain and localised flash flooding under a coastal trough, while the southern inland and west experience persistent heat and fire danger, punctuated by frontal wind surges and a cooler change early next week.

Australia remains under a dominant heat regime this week, extending from the Pilbara and Interior through South Australia into inland NSW and Queensland. Maximums of 40–45 °C are widespread, accompanied by gusty north-westerlies and very dry air.

How a failed spring and a moving drought corridor set the scene Over the past few days, communities across New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania have been hit by fast moving bushfires that have destroyed homes, cut roads and forced evacuations. In New South Wales, a natural disaster has been declared after almost forty homes were lost across several local government areas, including the Central Coast, Mid Coast, Upper Hunter, Muswellbrook, Warrumbungle and Dubbo.

The pattern ahead sets the stage for the next High Energy Period, focused primarily over the western basin from 8–12 December. Current model guidance indicates Cyclone Genesis near 112–114° E, with the system expected to drift south toward the Pilbara coast by mid-month. Secondary tropical lows are likely to form across the Arafura Sea and near 160° E between Vanuatu and New Caledonia, each forecast to track southeastward.

28 November 2025 Severe Weather & Heatwave Overview

The current High Energy Period (19–24 November) reaches its peak today, coinciding precisely with the maximum intensity of Severe Tropical Cyclone Fina. The system is now beginning to weaken and will continue tracking southwest towards the North Kimberley coast and Mitchell Plateau from 25 November onwards.

A highly dynamic national pattern is unfolding, driven by Tropical Cyclone Fina across the northern Top End, widespread severe heat across inland Australia, and increasing thunderstorm activity along the eastern seaboard.

Tropical Cyclone Fina Update – Alignment with the 19–24 November High-Energy Period

High Energy Period 19-24th Intensifies: Tropical Low 02U and the Escalation of National Severe Weather

Australia Climate & Weather Briefing – Mid November 2025

Severe-Weather Synopsis A broad storm corridor from WA Interior → SA → QLD → eastern NSW peaks mid-week. Damaging winds, large hail, and flash-flooding possible in QLD interior and northern NSW. Heatwave early week across the north and west; humidity surge by mid-week. Tropical build-up strengthening; next west-to-east convective phase due ~19 Nov.

Satellite 7.11.2025 Solar Activity Overview Solar activity has intensified significantly during the past fortnight, with several X-class flares recorded. These are the strongest flares observed since the major June event and occurred within the most recent High Energy Period from 29th October to 5th November. X1.8 Flare This solar uplift arrived precisely as Australia experienced the wettest national window of spring to date. The overlap between enhanced space-weather activit

Weekly totals reached 50 to 100 mm through inland Queensland and New South Wales, with a national high of 254 mm at Brays Creek (NSW). Moisture also extended across the Northern Territory, Kimberley, interior South Australia and south-west Western Australia, confirming a full re-establishment of tropical and inland moisture. This marks the atmospheric reset OIF signalled: a transition to the late-spring wet phase, now building toward the next major activation (19 – 24 Novem

After more than 12 months of entrenched drought across large parts of eastern South Australia, western Victoria, and western New South Wales, a significant atmospheric shift is now taking shape. The week ahead will mark the beginning of a long-awaited transition from persistent dryness to widespread instability and renewed rainfall across much of the nation.

A significant atmospheric shift is underway as the current High Energy Period continues to intensify across Australia. Energy build-up through the northwest corridor is increasing, with a broad northwest flow now developing via the Kimberley and Darwin–Daly before extending into the central interior.

Satellite imagery 27.10.2025

Australia remains under a sharp temperature contrast, with heatwave conditions dominating the north and interior, while southern states experience cold, gusty southerlies and frost risk following frontal passage. Marine wind warnings are widespread around southern and eastern waters, marking an energetic late-October pattern.

Video Update - Southern Australian Rain and increasing moisture trends across the interior.

October 2025 has continued the prevailing theme of below-average rainfall, persistent heat, and inconsistent model performance across much of Australia. Despite sporadic thunderstorm activity and the emergence of a cloud band through the northwest interior late in the month, broad-scale relief has remained elusive. Temperatures have been markedly above average, reinforcing the dominance of high-pressure blocking and limited atmospheric coupling throughout spring.