Forecasts

Over the next week I will finalise the April 2026 forecast which will be available to Annual or Gold members only. The April period signals one final tropical burst to see out the northern wet season before the transition back towards the southern wet season begins once again.

A northwest cloud band feeds into a broad trough today with storm events in the Southeast; a developing low near the NSW coast lifts severe-weather risk for the East Coast on Thursday; another inland trough brings rain and storms on Sunday.

BTC leads; alts lag. ETH is the only alt yet to chase BTC into current high zones. Structure and levels: BTC remains inside the indecision area where prior all-time-high trends are being tested, as well as the ~US$110,000 zone. On the daily, bullish structure is evident after the recent dip—there’s now a sequence of higher highs and higher lows, suggesting a low has formed.

Building heat across the northern interior is set to prime the atmosphere for the first thunderstorm outbreak of the season, as a tropical airmass surges ahead of an approaching frontal system.

National Weather Outlook - High Energy Period 3-5th September 2025. Satellite imagery 4.9.2025 This week’s conditions align with the High...

The recent High Energy Period (26–29 August) delivered widespread severe weather across South Australia, Victoria, Tasmania, and parts of New South Wales, with damaging winds and heavy rainfall the main features. Conditions are now generally clear, but attention shifts to the next phase (3–5 September). A CME impact expected around 2–3 September will inject additional atmospheric energy, increasing the risk of renewed severe weather.

The final week of August and the start of September will be dominated by strong cold fronts sweeping through southern Australia. These systems are expected to deliver damaging winds, rain, snow to low levels, and renewed flood risks in eastern catchments. While the southern states battle severe winter weather, the climate backdrop of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) suggests a wetter lean for much of eastern Australia heading into Spring however the wetter period of Sprin

Transition to High Energy Period – 26–29 August 2025

September long-range review: With a Negative IOD in the background, spring leans drier overall, with coast-favoured rainfall and one major risk window mid-month. We outline climate drivers, temperature signals, and the exact dates most likely to deliver weather of impact, so you can plan works and operations with lead time. Read the full members-only breakdown and weekly refinements through March 2026.

The High Energy period (18–24 August) is beginning to fully mature, with both western and eastern Australia now experiencing heightened weather activity. This phase is marked by severe weather risks, including heavy rainfall, flooding potential, and strong frontal passages.

High Energy Period Brings Active Weather Across Australia: 18–24 August 2025

Weekly Weather Update - Cold surge builds in the east while rain returns for the west!

Stuart breaks down the developing weather systems set to impact NSW during the High Energy Period (31 July–2 August 2025). A coastal trough and East Coast Low are forecast to bring damaging winds, heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and hazardous surf from the Mid North Coast to the Hunter and inland. Flood watches are current, and further warnings are likely as the system intensifies. Full breakdown inside.

March is one of Australia’s most changeable months. It can pivot rapidly between humid, storm-laden weeks and hot, dry spells that extend across the continent. This volatility comes from the interplay of two climate engines: the fading tropical wet season in the north and the emerging autumn storm track in the south.

February 2026 features a high-impact tropical rainfall phase across Queensland and northern Australia early in the month, with flooding risk and possible tropical low or cyclone activity. Central and southern Australia remain dominated by heat and suppressed rainfall. Late February signals a rebuild of monsoonal activity in northwest Australia, setting the rainfall environment for March and marking a key seasonal pattern shift.

The first ten days of January 2026 will see active weather conditions across northern Australia as two tropical low-pressure systems are expected to form. These systems will bring widespread rainfall, storm activity, and the potential for tropical cyclones, especially in the northeast and northwest parts of the country. The setup during this period is characterised by elevated rainfall risks, atmospheric lifting, and coastal convergence zones, making it a critical period for

Colder and drier conditions across southern Australia, especially SA, VIC, southern NSW, and southern WA, with increased frost potential in inland regions. A stall or weakening of moisture inflow from the tropics, reducing rainfall and promoting a shift to more stable (clearer, drier) weather conditions. Enhanced high-pressure ridging may dominate the southern half of the continent, reinforcing drier trends heading into spring.

Recent Rainfall Summary – Late June to 10 July 2025 Widespread seasonal rainfall has been observed across southern and eastern Australia since late June, aligning with long-range forecast guidance that highlighted the 3rd to 10th of July as a key window for enhanced activity.

PHASE 3 – PEAK MONSOON EVENT 26 February to 10 March 2026 Widespread vorticity spreads from the eastern Indian Ocean through the Arafura and into the Coral Sea. Twin circulations likely:

The current front is forecast to bring an increase in rainfall across southern South Australia from today. Widespread totals of 1–5 mm are expected along the southwest coast, Eyre Peninsula, and into the Mid North, while 5–10 mm is likely to build across the Yorke Peninsula, Adelaide region, and the southeast.

Australia's climate history is marked by recurring droughts, significantly influenced by its geographical position within the subtropical high-pressure belt. This region is characterised by descending, dry, and stable air masses, resulting in generally low and erratic rainfall across much of the continent. While the far north and south benefit from relatively regular rain-bearing systems, and the east coast is fed by moisture-laden winds from the Tasman and Coral Seas, large

The High Energy period from 3–10 July officially kicks off today, though severe weather began early this week due to space weather influences, including CME activity. This window will feature a sequence of strong frontal systems, sweeping from west to east across southern Australia.

A powerful East Coast Low (ECL) is rapidly deepening off the NSW coastline today, with widespread damaging winds, localised destructive gusts, and heavy rainfall already impacting coastal and elevated areas—and it’s not over yet.

A High Energy atmospheric window is forming from 3 to 10 July, triggered by an Earth-facing Coronal Hole, with impacts typically felt 3–5 days post-alignment. This period is also expected to coincide with an incoming Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) from ~1 July, likely to deliver an initial shock to Earth’s magnetic field. The combined effects of solar and terrestrial interactions will significantly elevate storm risks across multiple regions.