Forecasts

Looking ahead, attention turns to a tropical system developing in the northeast basin between the 9th and 12th. This system, now Tropical Cyclone Maila, is currently a Category 3 system. Most models are taking it across the far north, tracking through the Arafura Sea. This aligns with earlier expectations of a track similar to Cyclone Narelle.

Attention then turns very quickly to the next key feature in the pattern, and this is where the forecast becomes far more significant. From around the 9th to the 12th of April, there is increasing model agreement on the development of a tropical low in the Timor Sea or Arafura Sea region. Sea surface temperatures remain elevated, sitting around 29 degrees, which is more than sufficient to support cyclone development. While we are still some time out, the consistency in the s

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Tropical Cyclone Narelle has redeveloped overnight into a Category 1 system and is now entering a critical intensification phase offshore the Pilbara coast. The key shift in this system is its size and structure. Despite remaining offshore, Narelle is broad enough to extend impacts well inland and along a large stretch of coastline, increasing risk well beyond the immediate core.

A significant shift in Australia’s weather pattern is now underway, with the atmosphere transitioning from a tropical-inland dominated phase into a southern-driven regime, marked by the development of an East Coast Low (ECL)along the New South Wales coast late this week. This system will be the defining feature for southeastern Australia from Thursday through Saturday, bringing a combination of severe thunderstorms, damaging coastal conditions, heavy rainfall, and a sharp co

There are cyclones… and then there are systems like Narelle. What has unfolded over the past week is not just another tropical system, but a rare, long-track, cross-basin cyclone that has impacted multiple regions across northern Australia and is now set to influence the west coast in the days ahead. From formation to its current phase, Narelle has followed a highly dynamic and energetic path, aligning closely with what we have identified as the final high-energy tropical w

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle and High Energy Period Drive National Rainfall and Weather Shift Across Australia

A weak tropical low has again shifted south into the central interior, following the inland corridor that has remained active since February. This system has already produced extensive flooding across the Top End and NT interior, along with significant rainfall and renewed flooding through the northern pastoral districts of South Australia.

Video Summary: Today’s video update discusses the building national weather phase currently developing across Australia, bringing a renewed round of storm activity through southern Western Australia, South Australia, Victoria and New South Wales. This emerging phase is also helping to re-establish long-range atmospheric pathways linking northern Australia with the south and south-east. These corridors are a critical component of both historical rainfall patterns and upcoming

A high energy weather period between 15 and 18 March will help drive a northwest cloud band across central Australia delivering rainfall through the interior and northern South Australia while storms continue across the north and coastal showers persist along eastern Queensland.

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Next Weather Phase From Around 15 March 2026

Severe Weather Peaks as the 3–9 March High Energy Period Draws to a Close

For April 2026, most climate guidance and pattern analysis suggests the month will lean drier overall, with meaningful rainfall concentrated into a small number of defined weather windows rather than widespread activity.

An active week is unfolding across northern Australia as multiple tropical lows develop across several basins from Western Australia to Queensland. Tropical Lows 28U, 29U, 30U and 31U are expected to evolve over the coming days, increasing the risk of cyclone formation and associated severe weather impacts across parts of the tropics.

Satellite imagery 2.3.2026

Renewed flood risk is developing for Queensland, while tropical cyclone risk is increasing for the Pilbara and Mid West of Western Australia. This next phase may deliver another prolonged rainfall period across the northeast and parts of the west.

Current guidance continues to favour an overall southward drift of TL26U through South Australia, with central and eastern districts most exposed, generally east of Ceduna. However, as with all slow moving tropical systems embedded within a monsoonal flow, subtle shifts in track will influence where heavier corridors ultimately consolidate.

Major Weather Event Underway

This update focuses on the evolving rainfall setup for South Australia and Victoria, heavily influenced by WA tropical development through late February 2026.