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Tropical Cyclone Fina Update – Alignment with the 19–24 November High-Energy Period

High Energy Period 19-24th Intensifies: Tropical Low 02U and the Escalation of National Severe Weather

Australia Climate & Weather Briefing – Mid November 2025

Severe-Weather Synopsis A broad storm corridor from WA Interior → SA → QLD → eastern NSW peaks mid-week. Damaging winds, large hail, and flash-flooding possible in QLD interior and northern NSW. Heatwave early week across the north and west; humidity surge by mid-week. Tropical build-up strengthening; next west-to-east convective phase due ~19 Nov.

Satellite 7.11.2025 Solar Activity Overview Solar activity has intensified significantly during the past fortnight, with several X-class flares recorded. These are the strongest flares observed since the major June event and occurred within the most recent High Energy Period from 29th October to 5th November. X1.8 Flare This solar uplift arrived precisely as Australia experienced the wettest national window of spring to date. The overlap between enhanced space-weather activit

Weekly totals reached 50 to 100 mm through inland Queensland and New South Wales, with a national high of 254 mm at Brays Creek (NSW). Moisture also extended across the Northern Territory, Kimberley, interior South Australia and south-west Western Australia, confirming a full re-establishment of tropical and inland moisture. This marks the atmospheric reset OIF signalled: a transition to the late-spring wet phase, now building toward the next major activation (19 – 24 Novem

After more than 12 months of entrenched drought across large parts of eastern South Australia, western Victoria, and western New South Wales, a significant atmospheric shift is now taking shape. The week ahead will mark the beginning of a long-awaited transition from persistent dryness to widespread instability and renewed rainfall across much of the nation.

A significant atmospheric shift is underway as the current High Energy Period continues to intensify across Australia. Energy build-up through the northwest corridor is increasing, with a broad northwest flow now developing via the Kimberley and Darwin–Daly before extending into the central interior.

Satellite imagery 27.10.2025

Australia remains under a sharp temperature contrast, with heatwave conditions dominating the north and interior, while southern states experience cold, gusty southerlies and frost risk following frontal passage. Marine wind warnings are widespread around southern and eastern waters, marking an energetic late-October pattern.

Video Update - Southern Australian Rain and increasing moisture trends across the interior.

October 2025 has continued the prevailing theme of below-average rainfall, persistent heat, and inconsistent model performance across much of Australia. Despite sporadic thunderstorm activity and the emergence of a cloud band through the northwest interior late in the month, broad-scale relief has remained elusive. Temperatures have been markedly above average, reinforcing the dominance of high-pressure blocking and limited atmospheric coupling throughout spring.

The current forecast period is expected to remain predominantly dry, characterised by a broad zone of heat anomalies expanding from the northwest and moving east through the interior. Elevated temperatures will dominate Western Australia, the Northern Territory, South Australia, Queensland, New South Wales, and parts of Victoria.

Summary Australia is currently under multi-state weather hazards, including: Extreme heat in the Northern Territory Extreme fire danger in southern WA Thunderstorms and flash flood risk across southern QLD Gale-force coastal winds from Tasmania to NSW Cold, grazing-risk conditions in alpine regions Widespread pattern reflects strong thermal contrasts across the continent as inland heat intensifies and frontal systems progress through southern waters.

Over the weekend, severe storms have frequently dominated the skyline, with intense cells firing across Victoria, Queensland, and portions of the interior. Rainfall totals have been highly variable, ranging from just a few millimetres to over 100 mm in isolated locations. The most significant accumulations have centred along the south-east Queensland corridor, from the Warrego east through the Downs to the SEQ region.

A strong north–south contrast is unfolding.To the north, rising heat and humidity from the Arafura and Coral Seas are expanding into the interior.To the south, a vigorous cold front continues to sweep through South Australia, Victoria, Tasmania, and southern NSW, producing damaging to locally destructive winds with gusts exceeding 120 km/h in parts of Tasmania and 90–110 km/h elsewhere. This opposing setup forms the perfect stage for widespread storm development and rapid te

After a slow and noticeably dry start to Spring, the atmosphere is finally ready to shift gears. The upcoming High Energy Period (11–17 October) marks the first broad-scale, multi-state weather event of the season.

High Energy Period Set to Ignite October Storm Season After a dry and subdued start to spring, the next significant weather shift is approaching. The High Energy Period, forecast for 11–17 October 2025, is expected to deliver the first multi-state rain and storm outbreak in many months. This event will stretch from the tropical north-west, through the central interior, and into the eastern states, affecting regions from the Kimberley to the southern coast.

Heat: Heat to build in the west from today ahead of front. Heat shifts across SA into Vic and NSW by Sunday leading to fire weather risks - renewed heat and fire risk Wednesday - Thursday next week for the southeast. Wind: Fresh to strong W–SW changes accompany each southern front, most notable in south-west WA on Tuesday and along the Bass Strait coasts mid-week. Dry northwesterlies ahead of fronts deliver fire danger periods across the south Friday to Sunday - Wednesday

While mainstream guidance expected a widespread wet spring, OIF’s caution of a drier-leaning start to spring has proven accurate, highlighting the value of including non-traditional drivers beyond ocean indices in seasonal risk assessments.